2002 NFL Conference Champs

Loyal readers know that I am a Patriots fan, as any self-respecting resident of Grover’s Corners is. So, you can understand if I lack a certain objective perspective on the fumble/incomplete pass controversy in the Raiders-Patriots game. So let me get the basics out of the way…

1. The rule may be flawed—it may even be changed as a result of this game—but the officials got the call right according to the way the rule is written.
2. The Raiders were still ahead and had the opportunity to stop the Pats.
3. The Raiders did force Adam Vinatieri to attempt and make a 45-yard field goal to tie the game. That doesn’t sound bad, if you didn’t watch the game. Under game conditions, it was more like a 65-yard field goal. The ball disappeared into the storm. Those of us watching at home didn’t know what happened till the officials raised their hands.
4. There was still overtime and yet another chance for the Raiders to win.
5. Quit yer yappin’.

Let’s spend a little time on the game, which gave us everything that’s great in a game that’s meant to be played under the same conditions worked by the US Postal Service. The snow and cold and dead of night meant everything to this game, setting the clutch plays—on both sides—in a kind of etched clarity seen in great black-and-white movies of the ‘40s and ‘50s. Indeed, highlights of this game should be de-colorized to black-and-white, so we get the same look and feel of those highlights from the ’58 championship game.

Maybe they should have the Super Bowl (every 10 years, let’s say) outdoors and above the Mason-Dixon Line.

But not on artificial turf. Artificial turf is just wrong. It’s wronger than the designated hitter in baseball…

This game was a slugfest, unlike the other games played this past weekend. The Raiders gave it everything they had. Gannon, Garner, Rice and Brown all delivered big plays on offense. Gruden bested Belichick on their touchdown, going to the fourth wide receiver on their depth chart, James Jett. Their defense shut down the Patriots running game completely. They sacked Brady before the tying field goal, forcing what must’ve seemed like an impossible field goal given the conditions.

Wide receiver David Patten had a big game, as did the most improbable Patriots hero, tight end Jermaine Wiggins. Four different receivers had receptions of 20+ yards. But this was Tom Brady’s coming out party. Brady set a Patriots record for yards passing in a playoff game with 312 yards (topping Babe Parilli!); he was 32 for 52 (61%), including 9 for 9 on the drive that resulted in his 5 yard touchdown run. And he did it all of it in a steady snowstorm, in freezing conditions, in the dark of night, in his very first playoff game. It will take time to tell, but this may have been the night that Tom Brady became a great quarterback.

And as for the subjective notion of who deserved to win the game, check out the following points…

• The Patriots out gained the Raiders 365 to 230.
• The Patriots ran 82 plays to the Raiders 61.
• The Patriots had just one penalty; the Raiders four.
• The Patriots held the ball for 40 minutes, compared to 28 for the Raiders.

But I will admit this: It’s clearly better to be destiny’s darling, than to be fortune’s fool.

Speaking of fortune’s fools, how about Malcolm Glazer, the owner of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? He fires well-respected but championship-challenged Tony Dungy, never even gets a kiss from Steve Spurrier, and then gets dumped at the altar by The Tuna, Bill Parcells. I guess they won’t have to worry about those tampering rumors, after all, as there clearly was no deal in place. Right? So, now what? A quick check of the Irony Scope and we see Jim Mora’s available. Hmm… Tony Dungy in Indianapolis and Jim Mora in Tampa Bay. It won’t happen but it’s funny to think about it. No, instead, Jon Gruden of the now vacationing Oakland Raiders will be traded (for all intents and purposes) to Tampa Bay, putting an offense-minded coach in charge of a team that desperately needs to find a way to score some points (the Raiders presumably backfill with Denny Green). If that happens, then Tampa Bay will get better than they appear to deserve.

Before we get to this week’s round of games, let’s see how last week’s predictions fared…

AFC Semi-Finals

Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – The Familiarity Breeds Contempt Bowl

Who Should Win: Steelers

Who Will Win: Steelers

Who Did Win: Steelers

I was starting to believe the Ravens’ hype, instead of relying on the actual results from the previous two meetings. Everyone said—especially the Ravens players—that the Ravens had their swagger back. But this one played out pretty much true to form. Again, Elvis Grbac proves that he’s no Trent Dilfer. (Now that the Parcells/Tampa Bay deal has fallen through is Baltimore where Drew Bledsoe winds up? I hope not; if Drew has to go, I’d rather see him in an NFC uniform.) The Steelers offense dominated the Ravens defense. I thought this would be a slugfest—literally—but I felt that the Steelers were in control throughout. Stewart played well again. The Steelers ran the ball and did it again without Bettis. (He couldn’t play because of a "misplaced" groin shot. I don’t want to think about it.) Chris Brown did miss a field goal attempt, but he also made two. The Steelers looked very good.

Oakland Raiders vs. New England Patriots – The Chowdah Bowl

Who Should Win: Patriots

Who Will Win: Patriots

Who Did Win: Patriots!

A controversial call by the refs, an improbable field goal kicked into the snow-blown darkness of a winter storm to tie a game that should never have been in doubt, followed by an inexorable drive for the winning field goal in overtime. Hey! That’s the classic description of a game the Patriots lose. But they didn’t. They won! It’s just impossible for me to be rational about this. My beloved Patriots are now one game away from the Super Bowl! This had to be one of the greatest Patriots’ games I have witnessed. Unbelievable plays that would only be possible under these weather conditions were made time and time again. How about the Oakland player waiting patiently on his hands and knees in the end zone in a misguided attempt to down a punt on the 1-yard line? How about the pass that David Patten juggles and fails to catch at the sideline, knocking it into the air, where Jermaine Wiggins plucks it out of the air for a catch? Wiggins caught 10 passes in the game; he’d caught 14 in the entire regular season! Not to mention South Dakota grad Adam Vinatieri’s incredible tying field goal. Brady’s performance in the second half and overtime was the stuff of legends. (Not bad for a guy playing his first playoff game, and while we’re inside the parenthesis, I’d guess this settles the Brady-Bledsoe hash. Bledsoe is a great QB, and one of our secret weapons—wouldn’t you like to have a pro-bowler as your backup quarterback?—and as Brady cooled off in the second half of the season, I admit I was waiting for him to stumble and Drew to step up when he was finally needed. But it hasn’t happened. And if you still doubt who will be New England’s QB next year, you haven’t see how Brady and Belichick interact. Drew deserved a better end to his days in Foxborough, but it’s also clear that Belichick made a good call going with Brady. It’s a tough game in more ways than one.)

But here’s the real reason the Patriots won: For the game, Brady completed 32 of 52 passes for 312 yards, but after a miserable first half, Brady was 28 of 39 in the second half and overtime, a completion percentage of… .666! (Did anyone notice a goat being led into the Patriots locker-room at half-time?) And the name of the Patriots’ center? That’s right, Damien…

NFC Semi-Finals

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears – The Marty Stouffer Bowl

Who Should Win: Bears

Who Will Win: Eagles

Who Did Win: Eagles

Too much McNabb, as predicted. I actually thought the Bears had a better chance at a comeback with Shane Matthews at QB, and maybe they did. If it was, it clearly wasn’t enough. The Bears offense was simply overwhelmed by the Eagles defense. They were struggling even before Jim Miller got suplexed by Hugh Douglass. Before the game, I heard that the Bears were 13-0 when scoring 13 or more points. That’s fun with numbers, but think about it; it’s pretty tough to keep winning games when you’re scoring just 13 points. The Eagles have got a lot of options now on offense, with a defense that is even better. It was certainly easier for my buddy Bob to watch this game than it was for me to watch the Pats.

Green Bay Packers vs. St. Louis Rams – The MVP Bowl

Who Should Win: Rams

Who Will Win: Rams

Who Did Win: Rams

Either the Rams are way better than I thought they were, or, the Packers are not nearly as good as I thought they were. (I’ll hope for the latter.) This was frightening. And I didn’t think that Warner had his "A" game (a mere mortal 18 of 30 for 216 yards). Faulk didn’t have a particularly big game, either. Of course, it’s hard to dominate on offense when the defense is scoring three touchdowns. I never thought I’d see Brett Farve throw six interceptions. Yikes! And it could’ve been worse as I recall at least one other almost-interception dropped by linebacker London Fletcher. At least I think it was Fletcher. It was hard to look directly at the screen after a while.

So, toting up the numbers, I am now a much more respectable 5-3 predicting who will win, and a still scary 7-1 predicting who should win.

As for the championship round…

AFC Championship

New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – The Glass Slipper Bowl

Who Should Win: Steelers

The best team in the conference playing at home is a hard combination to beat. They ought to be 10½ point favorites. Kordell Stewart is passing the ball with confidence, and he still has the legs to turn a near-sack into a first down. The running game is the best in the NFL by a wide margin. And while they miss Bettis, he only represents about 55% of that league leading rushing attack. Losing Bettis has not devastated the Steelers the way the loss of Antowain Smith (64%) would affect the Patriots or Curtis Martin’s loss (73%) would affect the Jets. As evidenced against the Ravens, the Steelers running game is thriving, which shortens the game, keeps that daunting defense fresh, and makes Stewart that much more dangerous.

Who Will Win: Patriots!

After Saturday, everything seems possible. Unlikely? Sure. But who ever thought, well, I can’t think of anything that conjures up the level of giddiness I’m currently experiencing.

NFC Championship

Philadelphia Eagles vs. St. Louis Rams – The Hurdy-Gurdy Man Bowl

Who Should Win: Rams

Okay, I guess I wasn’t listening closely. It’s "The Greatest Show on Turf" (but I’d still be dialing up my lawyers if I was Ringling Brothers, Barnum & Bailey). These guys seem pretty confident in the belief that they’re as fast as Vin Diesel from "The Fast and the Furious." Maybe so. I think Michael Strahan made an interesting observation, on Fox’s pre-game show last weekend, though. In discussing the physical nature of the game, he noted that "Nobody likes to get hit for the whole game." In other words, it’s football, you get hit sometimes, but even the toughest get worn down when that beating is relentless. Can the Eagles keep the pressure up? Can they keep the game close, and wear down Warner (bruised ribs) and his receivers? (I don’t think you can break down Marshall Faulk.) I wouldn’t be shocked if they did, but I would be surprised. The game is closer than most think—the Eagles are better than most think—but the Rams should take this one in front of the home crowd.

Who Will Win: Rams

Can the Eagles defense slow down the Rams? Well, in Week 1 they did, holding the Rams to just 17 points in regulation (the Rams won, 20-17 in overtime). But that seems like a long time ago. The Rams racked up 42 points against a good Miami defense in Week 3 and 24 against the Bucs in Week 10 and averaged 31 points a game for the season. Farve is mobile, but nothing like McNabb. Can he get the Eagles offense into the end zone four times? The Eagles averaged 21 points a game, which is pretty good, but it probably won’t be enough. If you just run the numbers, it looks to me like the Rams by 14…

Offense

Defense

Diff

Rams vs. Eagles

31

13

18

Eagles vs. Rams

21

17

4

14

It will be closer than that, but the Rams should still win.

Looking ahead, here’s The Mike’s call, with updates based on less than stellar results from my predictions for Wild-Card weekend:

AFC
 
 
 

NFC
 

Wild-Card

Semifinals

Conference Finals

Super
Bowl

Conference Finals

Semifinals

Wild-Card

NY Jets vs. Oakland Raiders
 
 
 
 
 

Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Phil. Eagles

Oakland Raiders vs. NE Patriots
 
 
 

Phil. Eagles vs.
Chicago Bears
 

NE Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

NE Patriots vs. St. Louis Rams

Phil. Eagles vs. St. Louis Rams
 
 

Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
 
 
 

Green Bay Packers vs. St. Louis Rams
 

Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins
 
 
 
 
 

San Fran. 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers

Predictions provided for entertainment purposes only, please, no wagering…

Author’s Note

Here’s what wrong, wronger, and wrongest with sports…

1. Artificial Turf – Why don’t the various players’ unions go after the owners on this? How many knees blow out on turf? How many concussions. Plus its disinfectant effect on baseball…
2. Designated Hitter – I don’t know if it helps to govern the game to have pitchers hit. Are there fewer brawls in the National League? I guess I don’t care. The DH is evil.
3. Inflated Assist Statistics – It used to be that you were only credited with an assist on a pass that resulted in a teammate shooting and scoring a lay-up. Now, your teammate can take one dribble and one step. That’s not basketball, that’s hockey!