Buzzard Luck

Is luck real? Is there some ineffable, capricious pheromone of fate that attaches itself to some but stands apart from others? Following the opening weekend of the 2009 NFL season, I couldn’t help but wonder if it was something more than the residue of design or preparation colliding with opportunity. Seriously, did the Denver Broncos prepare for the season or careen headlong into it?

I’ve noted before that the ball has pointy ends and so it takes curious bounces. We noted once upon a time in one of the Pro Football Prospectus publications (2007?) that the one statistic that was not predictive from one year to the next was turnovers recovered. Again, pointy ends.

Was Week 1 simply a small data sample, or could we have glimpsed the teams that have been sprinkled with Pigskin Pixie Dust?

Nobody paying attention to the Denver Broncos during the preseason would’ve described them as lucky. Then again, they were playing the Cincinnati Bengals last Sunday.

The Broncos did absolutely nothing right on their winning touchdown. Brandon Marshall was triple covered because Brandon Stokley ran his route to close to Marshall’s. (Are all the Broncos wide receivers named Brandon?) Isn’t Josh McDaniels supposed to be an offensive super-mega-genius? Don’t passing offenses typically design their routes to avoid having two receivers in the same area at the same time? Maybe Kyle Orton screwed up the call. Whatever. Three defensive backs pinning Brandon Marshall to the sideline. This appears to be more of a lack of preparation colliding with opportunity. That doesn’t sound like it should be lucky.

I suppose it’s a mistake to associate luck with causality. Luck implies an unpredictable outcome. Bad things happen to good people. There’s good luck and buzzard luck. So the notion that luck is the residue of hard work or studious attention to detail strikes me as fatally flawed. The scenario where good things happen to good people who make a plan and work hard to achieve their goals is logical, not lucky. Kyle Orton’s record as a starting QB now stands at 22-12-0. Following last Sunday’s loss to the Packers, Jay Cutler’s record as a starting QB is 17-21-0. Does that make any sense?

You make one little mistake and somebody paints a penis on your front lawn…

Last Monday night, the Buffalo Bills managed once again to find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. It’s hard to fault the guy who led the league in kickoff returns last year for bringing it out of the end zone but without Leodis McKelvin’s fumble Buffalo would’ve had their first win over New England in six years. Well, probably.

Clearly, a significant number of elements contributed to the outcome, here. First, the Buffalo Bills had to hire Dick Jauron back in 2006. (The "Bill Belichick Face" and the "Dick Jauron Face" provide clear visual evidence of a difference between stoicism and blunted affect.) For some reason, even though the Patriots had all three timeouts and the two-minute warning in hand, Bills Pigskin COO Dick Jauron was sure Belichick would order up the on-side kick. No surprise to anyone with rudimentary mathematical skills, the Patriots kicked away. New England’s defense would need to force a three and out but if they did, Tom Brady would get the ball back with as much as a minute and a half to play. The chances of recovering an on-side kick are small (8%?) and would’ve given the Bills field position. Even if they had been stopped three and out, Buffalo’s punter could’ve pinned the Patriots deep in their own territory. So Stephen Gostkowski kicked high and deep and into the end zone.

Okay, maybe it isn’t that hard to believe. Jauron reportedly fired offensive coordinator Turk Schonert for filling up the players’ heads with crazy ideas about optional pass routes and blitz pick-up blocking assignments. Maybe the Bills coaches don’t like to confuse their players with concepts and decision trees or scenario models and probability theory. Maybe they like to trust their gut. Maybe they told Leodis McKelvin, "Just trust in your God-given talents, kid." Maybe they were so certain the Patriots would kick on-side they only talked to him about his role as deep safety should New England not only recover but advance the ball…

themike@wavingalien.com