Hope on a Rope

Public rhetoric and the 2008 Arizona Cardinals notwithstanding, there are actually a few teams that know they cannot win the Super Bowl this year. Still, it seems like there are about 30 teams talkin’ Tampa. How crazy is that? I’m not a psychiatrist (nor do I play one on TV) but that’s at least 50% crazy. Yes, I’m talking to you, NFC North.

Well, the dust has settled, mostly, and NFL rosters are set. Sort of. Whatever. It’s time to look ahead to the 2009 season.

Apparently bored with their whole "the NFC East is the toughest division in the NFL" love affair, Pigskin Pundits and Bobbleheads have turned their bedroom eyes to the NFC North, with QB cougar Brett Favre, bad boy QB Jay Cutler, good guy QB Aaron Rodgers, and QB of the Bleak Dystopian Future, Matt Stafford. Okay, I get that nobody wants to cover the incipient soap opera in Philadelphia. (Really, who are you rooting for? Sulky choke artist Donovan McNabb or dog choking artist Michael Vick?) The Giants are good but really so terribly, terribly boring. Dallas is still coached by Wade Phillips and Washington is still sleeping with other quarterbacks behind their starting QB’s back. Yeah, there’s got to be something better than that.

So, who you got?

The NFC East does have two serious contenders for the playoffs in the Giants and Eagles but Philadelphia, like Dallas and Washington, have way too much going on inside and outside of the locker room, so, if the Pundits and Bobbleheads are right, and the NFC North takes both Wild Card spots, then only the NYG will survive the regular season. There’s no way the McNabb-Vick-Reid ménage a trois lasts the season. Of course, now that he’s got the big contract, count me as one of those waiting for Eli Manning to implode. Unfortunately for my shriveled, blackened Pigskin Soul, I don’t think that will happen. And if it does, they’ll just blame Plaxico Burress. That excuse is probably good for one more season.

What I’m Rooting For: Washington to sweep Dallas and Dallas to finish a tiebreaker out of the playoffs.

There is a real possibility the NFC North could send three teams to the playoffs; there’s also a real possibility that Minnesota, Green Bay, and Chicago all finish 9-7-0. Undeniably, the six head-to-head divisional games will make for compelling TV. If forced to choose one of these teams to root for I suppose I would go with the Packers. First, I’ve hated the Vikings since they moved indoors. There was something Pigskin Crazy about a team playing outdoors in a Minnesota winter. When Joe Kapp was running over opposing linebackers and Bud Grant was refusing to put heaters on the home team’s sidelines, the Vikings were a team with an identity that mirrored their ruggedly rural Lutheran fan base. Since the move to the Metrodome? Meh. As for the Bears, I just don’t know who punches Jay Cutler out first; Brian Urlacher after a 35-31 loss that Cutler blames on the defense or one of the wide receivers he throws under the bus after a tough, 4 INT game the Bears lose 35-3. I can only hope it’s captured on videotape and posted on YouTube.

What I’m Rooting For: The Lions to beat the Bears in Detroit. I’m setting the over/under for police cruisers turned over and set on fire if this happens at 3.

Away down South in the NFC, it looks like the Saints or the Falcons. (Look for John Fox to be one of Jason Garrett’s first hires as Defensive Coordinator when he replaces Wade Phillips as Pigskin COO for the Dallas Cowboys next year. Unless Jerry Jones hires Bill Cowher. In which case, look for John Fox to be one of Bill Cowher’s first hires.) I like the Saints fast break offense to get them to the playoffs and an exciting Wild Card Round loss. I’d rather have the Falcons in the playoffs than the Bears (or the Vikings) but only a little bit. Okay, I really don’t care.

What I’m Rooting For: The Saints to beat the Buccaneers 63-0. Twice.

As for the NFC West, we are contractually required to accept one team from this division for the playoffs. Pundits and Bobbleheads are pooping on the Cardinals but I still like them better than the Seahawks. Not like like. Just like.

What I’m Rooting For: The 49ers to trade the rights to Michael Crabtree to the Denver Broncos for Brandon Marshall. Marshall really seems like Mike Singletary’s kind of guy, doesn’t he?

Pigskin Pundits and Bobbleheads have universally made the Patriots AFC East, AFC, and Super Bowl favorites, which should make every citizen of Patriots Nation uneasy. I’m guessing Peter King’s SI.com predictions have already been referenced in the meeting rooms of the Dolphins, Jets, and Bills (even if that was pro forma). New J-E-T-S Pigskin COO Rex Ryan has noted that if the Patriots need the bulletin board material he’s been posting from Day 1 on the j-o-b, then the NYJ will probably kick the NWE’s pigskin butts. Now, I think Rex is right, up to a point. No respectable NFL franchise should need something that’s posted on Twitter by an opponent to get ready for kick off. Agreed. But, if you subscribe (as I do) to the notion that the difference in talent from one roster to the next in the NFL is infinitesimally small, then other factors are in play when it comes down to wins and losses. Coaching, obviously. And the game day psyche of the team. "Who wants it more?" is a cliché because it’s true. At any rate, Bill Belichick already hates the Jets with a passion that will not die so it really doesn’t matter if Rex is here to kiss his rings or not. And Peter King? Well, yeah, he was right about the AFC East.

What I’m Rooting For: Transcripts.

Local Pundits and Bobbleheads seem to want to have it both ways. They decry Belichick’s bloodless lack of sentimentality even as they document the 3 Super Bowl Wins, 4 AFC Championships, and 8 AFC East Divisional Titles. They still want Harrison, Vrabel, Bruschi, and Seymour to run out of the tunnel on opening day and keep on running all the way to Tampa, despite their age and declining skills. We all root more with our hearts than our heads, even those who are paid to watch the games. It’s easy to forget that beat reporters become friends with players and trades like this one mean they have to say goodbye to someone they’ve gotten close to, someone they like and respect. So, I suppose an emotional reaction should be expected but how long have we been reading these "this is the move that will come back to haunt him" pieces on Belichick?

Bill Belichick knows he cannot have it both ways and he knew that a defense with Harrison, Vrabel, Bruschi, and yes, Richard Seymour might not have been good enough even with Tom Brady back under center. Belichick will not be judged on the basis of how many friends he has in the locker room, only by the crooked numbers in the "W" column. It seems to me that the reason for the 4-3 this preseason is not a reaction to the lack of depth at the linebacker position so much as the recognition that Richard Seymour was no longer the best player on the Pats defense, it’s Jerod Mayo. The 4-3 will position Mayo at middle linebacker where – protected by Vince Wilfork and Ron Brace – he can wreak havoc on opposing offenses. Derrick Burgess flanked by Adalius Thomas will get after the quarterback; Ty Warren flanked by Gary Guyton will hold the point. Brady to Welker, Brady to Welker, Brady to Moss for the touch.

themike@wavingalien.com